Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

This market asks whether Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic will return to what the market defines as "normal" by December 31, 2026. Resolution hinges on IMF Portwatch data: a "Yes" requires the 7-day moving average of transit calls (arrivals of container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships) to hit 60 or above on any date between market creation and year-end 2026. Otherwise, the market resolves "No." Across platforms, sentiment leans heavily toward traffic not clearing that threshold. Polymarket, which carries essentially all of the $11.8M in volume, prices "No" at 82.5% and "Yes" at 17.0%. Limitless, with negligible volume and liquidity, shows "No" at 50.0% and "Yes" at 17.5%. The consensus favourite is "No" at 82.5%, a roughly 65-point lead over "Yes" at 17.5%, signalling strong conviction that the 7-day average will stay below 60 through the resolution window. The most notable cross-platform spread is on the "No" side, where Limitless's 50.0% quote sits 32.5 points below Polymarket's 82.5%, though the Limitless market is effectively untraded. In practice, Polymarket is carrying the price discovery here, and it points decisively toward traffic remaining below normal.