summer bear vs BALU

This market covered the Dota 2 best-of-three between summer bear and BALU in Group B of the European Pro League, scheduled for early July 2026. Traders on Polymarket and Kalshi bought "Yes" shares on the team they expected to win the series, with rules resolving the market to the match winner per Dotabuff, or 50-50 in the case of cancellation, tie, or walkover. The market is now closed and pricing reflects a decisive outcome rather than pre-match uncertainty. On Kalshi, summer bear settled at 99.0% while BALU sits at 1.0%, and Polymarket's parallel market shows summer bear at effectively 100.0% and BALU at 0.1%. Ancillary props on Polymarket — covering map handicaps, totals, and correct scores — largely resolved cleanly, with the "Over" line hitting at 100.0% and "Under" collapsing to 0.1%, suggesting a competitive series that went the distance rather than a quick sweep. Several correct-score legs priced around 90/10 also finalised in line with a longer match. Cross-platform spreads are essentially zero, with Polymarket carrying the vast majority of the $27k in volume against Kalshi's roughly $4k. The takeaway: both venues converged on summer bear as the winner with no meaningful disagreement, and the auxiliary markets point to a full-length series rather than a one-sided result.