Tampa Bay vs Cleveland

Tampa Bay vs Cleveland is Game 5 of the 2026 American League Championship Series between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Cleveland Guardians. It was originally scheduled for October 17 and rescheduled to October 18 at 5:00 PM ET. The two main outcomes are simple: "Tampa Bay Rays" resolves yes if the Rays win the game, and "Cleveland Guardians" resolves yes if the Guardians win. Polymarket's rules resolve the market 50-50 if the game is cancelled with no make-up or ends in a tie. Kalshi's rules call for a fair-price resolution if the game is cancelled or pushed more than two days out. Total volume across listings stands at about $4.9 million, led by Kalshi at roughly $2.3 million. The Rays are slight favourites at a consensus 53.5%, against 46.5% for Cleveland. That 7-point gap points to a near coin-flip with a modest lean toward Tampa Bay. Pricing is tightly aligned. Gemini, Polymarket and Kalshi all sit at 53.5% for the Rays and 46.5% for the Guardians. Polymarket US is marginally different at 53.8% and 46.3%. The cross-platform spread is just 0.25 points on each outcome. Azuro was excluded from the consensus because it has no liquidity. Across platforms the market agrees almost exactly, giving Tampa Bay a narrow edge with no meaningful pricing discrepancies.