Tampa Bay vs New York Y

This listing covers an MLB game between the Tampa Bay Rays and the New York Yankees. Kalshi labels it Game 3 and lists it as originally scheduled for October 7, 2026 at 8:00 PM EDT. There are two outcomes: "New York Yankees" resolves if the Yankees win, and "Tampa Bay Rays" resolves if the Rays win. Polymarket's rules say a cancelled game with no make-up, or a tie, resolves 50-50. Kalshi says a cancelled game, or one rescheduled more than two days out, resolves to a fair price. The event has drawn about $1.06 million in total volume, with Novig ($434,768) and Kalshi ($297,640) the most active of the listed venues. The Yankees are the clear favourite at a 60.5% consensus, against 39.5% for the Rays, a gap of 21.0 points. Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket and Gemini all show a 60.5% midpoint for New York. The cheapest Yankees entry is 61.0% on Novig. For Tampa Bay, Kalshi, Polymarket and Novig sit at 39.5% and Gemini at 39.0%, so the spread is only 0.5 points. Gemini's listing has minimal volume ($1,458) and no reported liquidity. Azuro is excluded from the consensus because it has no liquidity. Across platforms, pricing is almost perfectly aligned, with every liquid venue implying roughly a 60/40 edge for the Yankees.