Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Oct 1, 2026 — October 1, 2026
Markets
Every market on this event, moneyline first. Select one to compare it across platforms in the side panel.
| Outcome | Result | Volume | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Above 66,000 MW Winner | Won | $375 | — | — | — | — | — | |
Above 67,000 MW | Lost | $2.3K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Above 68,000 MW | Lost | $2.6K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Above 69,000 MW | Lost | $711 | — | — | — | — | — | |
Above 71,000 MW | Lost | $561 | — | — | — | — | — | |
Above 77,000 MW | Lost | $3.3K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Above 78,500 MW | Lost | $523 | — | — | — | — | — | |
Above 80,000 MW | Lost | $209 | — | — | — | — | — | |
Above 82,500 MW | Lost | $100 | — | — | — | — | — | |
Above 70,000 MW No liquidity | Lost | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Above 72,000 MW No liquidity | Lost | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Above 73,000 MW No liquidity | Lost | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Above 74,000 MW No liquidity | Lost | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Above 75,000 MW No liquidity | Lost | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Above 76,000 MW No liquidity | Lost | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Above 77,500 MW No liquidity | Lost | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Above 78,000 MW No liquidity | Lost | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Above 79,000 MW No liquidity | Lost | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Above 79,500 MW No liquidity | Lost | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Above 80,500 MW No liquidity | Lost | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Dimmed prices were last confirmed too long ago for the state of this event (in play, before the game, or long-dated) and are left out of consensus, best price and spread.
Description from Kalshi. A cross-platform summary is generated once this event is matched across platforms.
The Expiration Value is the highest value in the TOTAL column of the first complete “Actual System Load by Forecast Zone” CSV report published by ERCOT for the October 1, 2026 operating day. Each value represents ERCOT system load for the corresponding full hour. Instantaneous load readings displayed elsewhere by ERCOT will not be considered. Values will be compared as published without rounding. Later revisions, settlement adjustments, or republications will not affect the Expiration Value.
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