Texas Senate winner? — In 2026

This market covers the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas, resolving to the winner of the general race (including any run-offs) once major networks call it or official certification is completed. The two named contenders in the snapshot are Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico, with each platform structuring the contract slightly differently — Kalshi and Polymarket list the candidates by name, while Polymarket US frames them with explicit party labels. Pricing is essentially a coin flip. On the party-tagged Polymarket US listing, Paxton (R) sits at 53.0% versus Talarico (D) at 51.0%. On Kalshi, Paxton trades at 52.0% and Talarico at 49.0%, while Polymarket flips the order, pricing Talarico at 51.0% and Paxton at just 49.0%. Aggregated across venues, Paxton is the narrow favourite at a 52.5% consensus. The most notable dislocation is on the candidates themselves: Paxton is 3.0 points cheaper on Polymarket (49.0%) than on Kalshi (52.0%), and Talarico is correspondingly 2.0 points cheaper on Kalshi than on Polymarket. Across platforms, the race is priced close to a toss-up, with Paxton holding a slim edge overall but Polymarket leaning the other way.