Toronto vs Boston
Markets
Every market on this event, moneyline first. Select one to compare it across platforms in the side panel.
| Outcome | Best | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Boston Red Sox Winner | 99.0%Kalshi | $3.8M | — | — | — | — | No liquidity99.9% | — | |
Kazuma Okamoto: 2+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $815 | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Willson Contreras: 1+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $1.1K | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Anthony Seigler: 1+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $178 | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Daulton Varsho: 1+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $186 | — | — | No liquidity79.0% | — | — | — | — |
Connor Wong: 1+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $165 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Ceddanne Rafaela: 2+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $253 | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Anthony Seigler: 2+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $262 | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Jarren Duran: 2+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $1.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Daulton Varsho: 2+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $230 | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Kazuma Okamoto: 3+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $1.4K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Daulton Varsho: 3+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $203 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Anthony Seigler: 3+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $208 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Kazuma Okamoto: 6+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $209 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Ceddanne Rafaela: 1+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $188 | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Kazuma Okamoto: 1+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $255 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Masataka Yoshida: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $625 | — | — | No liquidity30.0% | — | — | — | — |
Jarren Duran: 1+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $1.6K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Andruw Monasterio: 1+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $195 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Willson Contreras: 2+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $1.6K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Alejandro Kirk: 1+ | 63.0%Kalshi | $309 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Ernie Clement: 2+ | 42.0%Kalshi | $1.3K | — | — | No liquidity2.0% | — | — | — | — |
Wilyer Abreu: 2+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $821 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
George Springer: 3+ | 5.0%Kalshi | $296 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Boston wins by over 5.5 runs | 5.0%Kalshi | $1.4K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Alejandro Kirk: 2+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $132 | — | — | No liquidity69.0% | — | — | — | — |
Toronto Blue Jays Eliminated | 1.0%Kalshi | $3.1M | — | — | — | — | Eliminated$304.0K | — | |
Wilyer Abreu: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $532 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Ernie Clement: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $606 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
George Springer: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $850 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Caleb Durbin: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $393 | — | — | No liquidity34.0% | — | — | — | — |
Myles Straw: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $2.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Luis Urías: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $234 | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Davis Schneider: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $352 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Boston wins by over 4.5 runs | 1.0%Kalshi | $4.9K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
AI-generated summary, may be inaccurate.
This is the Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox MLB game at Fenway Park on July 24, 2026, part of a three-game weekend series. The moneyline markets are the main draw, asking simply which team wins. On Kalshi, Boston is the consensus favourite at 55.0%, while Polymarket prices the Red Sox higher at 63.1% — a notable cross-platform spread of 8.1 percentage points. Kalshi, conversely, has Toronto at 47.0% versus just 36.9% on Polymarket, a 10.1-point gap — the widest divergence in the event. Boston recently snapped a franchise-record-tying 15-game winning streak and enters this series opener looking to regroup. That streak lifted the Red Sox from 37-48 to 52-49, going 20-2 at one point after sweeping the Yankees on June 28. Patrick Sandoval, returning from a two-year absence following Tommy John surgery, takes the ball for Boston and is still winless in his third start back, having allowed five runs over five innings in his last outing. Toronto counters with Trey Yesavage, who took a loss last Sunday despite posting a season-high nine strikeouts over six innings. Boston's offence has been blistering lately, hitting 15 home runs over the last 10 games while slugging .451. Toronto's lineup has been comparatively cold, slugging .324 over the same stretch and batting just .210 as a team. Beyond the moneyline, Kalshi carries deep prop markets centred on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and several Red Sox hitters. The total-runs market (over 2.5) sits at near-certainty, and Boston's team-total markets over 5.5 runs are priced at 74.0%. The Polymarket moneyline gap of roughly 8–10 points versus Kalshi is the sharpest cross-platform divergence here, suggesting the two venues are attracting meaningfully different market consensus on Boston's true win probability.
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