Toronto vs San Diego
Markets
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| Outcome | Best | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
San Diego Padres Winner | 49.5%Azuro | $5.2M | — | — | — | — | |||
Kazuma Okamoto: 2+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $1.3K | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Ernie Clement: 2+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $2.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Jonatan Clase: 2+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $297 | — | — | No liquidity9.0% | — | — | — | — |
Andrés Giménez: 2+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $328 | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Jake Cronenworth: 2+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $418 | — | — | No liquidity9.0% | — | — | — | — |
Jonatan Clase: 3+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $689 | — | — | No liquidity94.0% | — | — | — | — |
Jonatan Clase: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $792 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Xander Bogaerts: 1+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $5.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Daulton Varsho: 1+ | 4.0%Kalshi | $3.8K | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Ernie Clement: 1+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $2.8K | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Brandon Valenzuela: 1+ | 3.0%Kalshi | $323 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Ty France: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $4.5K | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Nathan Lukes: 1+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $2.4K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Andrés Giménez: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $1.4K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Toronto Blue Jays | 0.1%Polymarket | $4.8M | — | — | — | — | |||
Kazuma Okamoto: 3+ | 28.0%Kalshi | $413 | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Daulton Varsho: 3+ | 18.0%Kalshi | $118 | — | — | No liquidity24.0% | — | — | — | — |
Andrés Giménez: 4+ | 17.0%Kalshi | $191 | — | — | No liquidity98.0% | — | — | — | — |
Draw | 14.2%Azuro | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Sung-Mun Song: 3+ | 13.0%Kalshi | $174 | — | — | No liquidity2.0% | — | — | — | — |
Daulton Varsho: 4+ | 12.0%Kalshi | $300 | — | — | No liquidity98.0% | — | — | — | — |
Sung-Mun Song: 4+ | 8.0%Kalshi | $790 | — | — | No liquidity98.0% | — | — | — | — |
Daulton Varsho: 2+ | 3.0%Kalshi | $483 | — | — | No liquidity46.0% | — | — | — | — |
Sung-Mun Song: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $1.4K | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Ty France: 2+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $576 | — | — | No liquidity3.0% | — | — | — | — |
Ernie Clement: 3+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $204 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Jake Cronenworth: 3+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $173 | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Jake Cronenworth: 1+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $9.3K | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Nathan Lukes: 2+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $2.2K | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Gavin Sheets: 2+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $655 | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Nathan Lukes: 4+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $486 | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Gavin Sheets: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $4.9K | — | — | No liquidity69.0% | — | — | — | — |
Sean Keys: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $2.0K | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Rodolfo Durán: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $538 | — | — | No liquidity3.0% | — | — | — | — |
Kazuma Okamoto: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $10.3K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Over 13.5 runs scored | 1.0%Kalshi | $11.6K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Padres wins by over 4.5 runs | 1.0%Kalshi | $14.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
AI-generated summary, may be inaccurate.
This market covers the MLB regular-season game between the Toronto Blue Jays and San Diego Padres, originally scheduled for July 12, 2026 at 4:10 PM ET. Each listing platform resolves based on the winner of that game, with Polymarket resolving 50-50 in the rare case of a cancellation or tie, and Kalshi keeping the market open through postponements. Across platforms, the two clubs are priced almost as a coin flip. On Kalshi, Toronto sits at 52.0% versus San Diego at 49.0%, making the Blue Jays a very slight favourite. Polymarket's binary shows the Blue Jays at 49.5% and the Padres at 50.5%, essentially the mirror image. Azuro echoes Polymarket at 49.5% Toronto and 50.5% San Diego, while also carrying a 13.3% Draw line — a structural feature of that market rather than a realistic baseball outcome. Polymarket's separate Yes/No contract prints 43.5%/56.5%. The favourite is Toronto at 52.0%, but the edge is under three points and disappears entirely on Polymarket and Azuro, where the Padres nose ahead. The cross-platform takeaway: books disagree on which side is marginally favoured, but all agree this is close to a pick'em.
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