Toronto vs San Francisco
Markets
Every market on this event, moneyline first. Select one to compare it across platforms in the side panel.
| Outcome | Best | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
San Francisco Giants Winner | 99.0%Kalshi | $1.5M | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Heliot Ramos: 2+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $1.8K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Heliot Ramos: 3+ | 90.0%Kalshi | $484 | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Bryce Eldridge: 2+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $2.2K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Heliot Ramos: 4+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $237 | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Jung Hoo Lee: 2+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $2.3K | — | — | No liquidity35.0% | — | — | — | — |
Heliot Ramos: 5+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $234 | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Kazuma Okamoto: 2+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $3.2K | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Victor Bericoto: 2+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $2.3K | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Kazuma Okamoto: 3+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $1.2K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Victor Bericoto: 3+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $224 | — | — | No liquidity17.0% | — | — | — | — |
Victor Bericoto: 4+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $233 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Ernie Clement: 1+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $2.2K | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Heliot Ramos: 1+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $8.2K | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Kazuma Okamoto: 1+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $5.3K | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Nathan Lukes: 1+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $4.1K | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Jung Hoo Lee: 1+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $3.0K | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Willy Adames: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $4.6K | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Bryce Eldridge: 1+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $8.7K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Victor Bericoto: 5+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $211 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Giants wins by over 8.5 runs | 99.0%Kalshi | $21.6K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Giants wins by over 7.5 runs | 99.0%Kalshi | $9.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Giants wins by over 6.5 runs | 99.0%Kalshi | $22.6K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Giants wins by over 5.5 runs | 99.0%Kalshi | $2.7K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Giants wins by over 4.5 runs | 99.0%Kalshi | $22.4K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Jung Hoo Lee: 3+ | 19.0%Kalshi | $3.6K | — | — | No liquidity21.0% | — | — | — | — |
Myles Straw: 2+ | 40.0%Kalshi | $160 | — | — | No liquidity31.0% | — | — | — | — |
Luis Arraez: 3+ | 36.0%Kalshi | $558 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Luis Arraez: 2+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $4.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Daulton Varsho: 2+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $3.3K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Alejandro Kirk: 2+ | 32.0%Kalshi | $285 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Myles Straw: 3+ | 24.0%Kalshi | $250 | — | — | No liquidity18.0% | — | — | — | — |
Daulton Varsho: 3+ | 20.0%Kalshi | $1.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Jung Hoo Lee: 4+ | 13.0%Kalshi | $459 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Myles Straw: 4+ | 13.0%Kalshi | $241 | — | — | No liquidity8.0% | — | — | — | — |
Eric Haase: 1+ | 4.0%Kalshi | $750 | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Andrés Giménez: 1+ | 3.0%Kalshi | $2.2K | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Luis Arraez: 1+ | 3.0%Kalshi | $4.9K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Myles Straw: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $2.0K | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Alejandro Kirk: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $2.2K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Ernie Clement: 2+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $278 | — | — | No liquidity45.0% | — | — | — | — |
Casey Schmitt: 2+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $371 | — | — | No liquidity36.0% | — | — | — | — |
Sean Keys: 2+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $119 | — | — | No liquidity96.0% | — | — | — | — |
Sean Keys: 1+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $2.2K | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Daulton Varsho: 1+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $1.7K | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Toronto Blue Jays | 0.4%Polymarket | $2.4M | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Casey Schmitt: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $10.2K | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Victor Bericoto: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $4.7K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
AI-generated summary, may be inaccurate.
This closed market's Jul 6, 2026 interleague game between the Toronto Blue Jays and San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park drew heavy prediction-market interest, spread across a Polymarket moneyline and roughly a dozen Kalshi contracts covering the full run line, totals, inning splits and player props for both Kevin Gausman and Landen Roupp, plus hitters like Rafael Devers and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Going into first pitch, the market clearly leaned San Francisco. The consensus moneyline settled at 91.5% for the Giants across Polymarket (99.8%) and Kalshi (99.0%), with the Blue Jays priced around 25% at the widest and just 0.4% on Polymarket by the end — a 15.5-point cross-platform spread that reflects late-resolution pricing rather than genuine disagreement. Kalshi's derivative markets echoed the same tilt: San Francisco was favoured to win the first 5 innings at 91.0%, to cover -1.5 through five at 80.0%, and to score 2+ runs at 99.0%, while the Over 2.5 total sat at 94.0%. Those prices proved conservative. The Giants beat the Blue Jays 10-1 on July 6, 2026, an outcome that lines up with the context around Gausman, who hadn't won since April 26 across a stretch of 11 starts with a 5.87 ERA, and hadn't recorded a win since May 22. The start also marked Gausman's return to Oracle Park after leaving the Giants as a free agent, opening a three-game interleague series in San Francisco. Across platforms, Polymarket and Kalshi agreed decisively on the Giants, with the only meaningful spreads appearing in thinly traded player props.
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