Tsarukyan vs Ruffy

The Tsarukyan vs. Ruffy market covers the UFC 331 lightweight main-card bout between Arman Tsarukyan and Mauricio Ruffy, scheduled for September 19, 2026. Head-to-head markets resolve to whichever fighter is officially declared the winner, with draws, no contests, or cancellations beyond October 3 resolving 50-50. Alongside the straight winner market, Kalshi lists derivative markets for method of victory, round of finish, and method of finish, while Azuro offers over/under lines on total rounds. Tsarukyan is the clear favourite at a consensus 73.5%, priced almost identically across venues: Polymarket 73.5%, Kalshi 73.0%, Polymarket US 73.0%, and Azuro slightly higher at 74.6%. Ruffy sits at 27.5% consensus, ranging from 26.5% on Polymarket to 28.9% on Azuro. A draw or no contest is priced at just 1.5% on Kalshi. On the derivatives, Kalshi has KO/TKO/DQ as the most likely method at 49.5%, submission at 31.5%, and decision at 23.0%, with the fight ending before round 5 at 64.5% and before round 3 at 39.0%. Tsarukyan by submission (29.5%) is the single most likely finish path. Cross-platform pricing on the headline winner market is tightly aligned, with only about two points separating the highest and lowest quotes on Tsarukyan.