Twisted Saints Esports vs Formulation Gaming

This live market covers a Valorant Best-of-3 elimination match between Twisted Saints Esports and Formulation Gaming in Group A of the VCL EMEA: Last Chance Qualifier 2026, which began July 8. A "Yes" or team-name resolution goes to whoever takes the series; forfeits and walkouts before the match resolve 50-50 on Polymarket, while individual map markets (like Map 2) settle on the winner of that specific map. Twisted Saints Esports is the clear favourite across every venue. On the headline match-winner line, Kalshi has TSE at 81.0% and Polymarket sits at 79.0%, for a consensus around 80.0%, while Formulation Gaming trades between 21.0% and 25.0% on those same books. Limitless, with no volume yet, still shows a default 50.0%/50.0% quote that hasn't caught up to the sharper markets. A few Polymarket sub-markets — likely reflecting the live in-match state after TSE took an early map — have pushed Twisted Saints as high as 99.9% and dropped Formulation to 0.5%, consistent with a series that is already tilting decisively. The Map 2 and totals lines are closer to a coinflip, with Under edging Over 52.0% to 48.0%. The cross-platform takeaway: Kalshi and Polymarket agree tightly on a roughly four-to-one edge for Twisted Saints Esports, with live sub-markets suggesting the match itself is nearly resolved in their favour.