TX-15 House winner? — In 2026

The Texas 15th Congressional District race is one of the more closely watched House contests heading into the November 3, 2026 midterms. Listed on Kalshi, Polymarket, and Polymarket US, the market resolves to the party of the candidate who wins the seat, with a Democratic or Republican outcome determined by ballot-listed affiliation or, absent that, the party the winner most recently intended to caucus with. Across platforms, the Democratic side is the narrow favourite at a consensus 51.5%, with Kalshi pricing it at 52.0% and Polymarket slightly higher at 53.0%. The Republican side sits at a consensus 48.5%, with Kalshi at 49.0% and Polymarket at 47.5%. The tightest cross-platform spread is on the Democratic outcome at 0.5 points, while the Republican side shows a wider 2.0-point gap between Kalshi and Polymarket. Polymarket US carries elevated but effectively stale pricing (Democratic 61.0%, Republican 57.0%) on zero volume, so it carries little informational weight. Kalshi dominates the liquidity picture with about $1.1M in volume against Polymarket's $11.8K. The takeaway: the actively traded venues agree TX-15 is close to a coin flip with a slight Democratic lean, and cross-platform disagreement is minimal.