US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

This market asks whether the U.S. will officially announce an end to its naval blockade of Iran before January 1, 2027. The blockade was first imposed on April 13, 2026, following the failure of the Islamabad Talks, then briefly lifted: Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed a memorandum of understanding at the Palace of Versailles on June 17, and CENTCOM announced the removal of the blockade on June 18. That relief was short-lived — on July 13, Trump announced reinstatement of the blockade, which CENTCOM confirmed would take effect the following day. Markets are firmly pricing in the blockade staying in place. Polymarket, which hosts the overwhelming majority of the $34.2 million in volume, places the "No" outcome at 88.5%, with Limitless aligned at a comparable level. The "Yes" implied probability sits at just 11.5% on Polymarket and around 11.5% consensus — a decisive lean toward continued blockade. The most recent diplomatic signals do little to shift that calculus: Iran's foreign minister proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz and resuming nuclear talks within seven days if the Trump administration accepts its conditions, but the Trump administration has previously said it will not return to the terms of the June agreement. Meanwhile, Iran's Supreme National Security Council has stated the Strait would not reopen until the United States "corrects its behaviour," suggesting little near-term diplomatic breakthrough. Across both Polymarket and Limitless, the consensus is strongly aligned — "No" is the firm favourite with no meaningful cross-platform spread, reflecting broad market agreement that a formal U.S. announcement ending the blockade before year-end remains unlikely.