US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

This market asks whether the United States and Iran will announce a diplomatic agreement over vessel traffic in the Strait of Hormuz by a specified date. To resolve "Yes," both governments must accept the same qualifying instrument — a treaty, deal, or similar arrangement establishing Iranian commitments to permit, restore, or increase shipping through the strait — with acceptance announced by 11:59 PM ET on the deadline. The event window runs through October 1, 2026, and has drawn roughly $1.27 million in volume, almost entirely on Polymarket, with Limitless also carrying a listing. The consensus strongly favours "No," priced at 96.8% across platforms, against just 3.3% for "Yes." Polymarket alone shows "No" at 96.5% and "Yes" at 3.2%, while Limitless prices a September 30 deadline variant at 3.3%. A separate Limitless line tied to an August 31 date sits at 50.0%, though that reading appears isolated and lacks a cross-platform consensus reference. The favourite is decisive: traders assign only a low-single-digit chance to any qualifying US-Iran Hormuz agreement being announced within the window. Cross-platform pricing on the headline outcomes is essentially aligned, with no material spread between Polymarket and Limitless on the shared contracts.