US-Iran nuclear deal? — In 2026

This market asks whether the US and Iran will conclude a formal nuclear deal within various timeframes, emerging from an extraordinarily turbulent 2026 backdrop. In late February 2026, Israel and the United States launched air strikes against Iran targeting its nuclear and ballistic missile programme and seeking regime change — strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Conflict continued until April, when Pakistan announced a two-week pause had been agreed. In June, Tehran and Washington signed a memorandum of understanding committing to a "final deal in maximum 60 days," with the core issues being the future of Iran's nuclear programme and sanctions relief. However, the 60-day ceasefire was mired with infringements, and Iran's Revolutionary Guards flatly denied any ongoing talks with Washington, calling Trump's claims about progress a "lie." On both Polymarket and Kalshi, the dominant signal across every near-term deadline — before February 2027, March 2027, or even the end of 2028 — is overwhelmingly "No," with Polymarket pricing near-term "Yes" outcomes at just 0.0%–10.0% and Kalshi similarly ranging from 1.0% to 10.0% for early deadlines. The broadest "Yes" consensus, covering any deal before January 20, 2029, sits at just 24.5%–25.0% on Kalshi — making it the current market favourite only by default, and still deeply pessimistic. A modest cross-platform spread of roughly 2.6 points exists on the near-term "Yes" outcome, with Kalshi at 8.5% and Polymarket at 10.0%, reflecting slightly different resolution criteria between platforms. The message across both platforms is consistent: markets assign only a slim one-in-four chance of any qualifying deal materialising even over a multi-year horizon, with the collapsed 60-day negotiating window and ongoing Iranian denials of active talks anchoring sentiment firmly toward "No."