US-Iran nuclear deal? — In 2026

This market asks whether the US and Iran will reach a formal nuclear deal in 2026, defined as a signed agreement that places verifiable limits on Iran's enrichment and centrifuge activity while lifting at least one US sanction in exchange. Separate contracts cover different deadlines — before February 1, 2027, March 1, 2027, January 1, 2028, and January 20, 2029 — letting traders price both near-term breakthroughs and longer-run eventual resolution. Kalshi is effectively the only venue with liquidity, so cross-platform spreads are negligible (0.00 pts) and consensus figures mirror Kalshi's own pricing. The longer-dated contracts are favored: "Before Jan 1, 2028" leads at 36.0%, closely trailed by "Before Jan 20, 2029" at 35.5%, while the nearer "Before Mar 1, 2027" and "Before Feb 1, 2027" sit at 18.0% and 16.0% respectively. This pattern signals traders see a deal as plausible but unlikely to be finalized quickly — the market is pricing in a slow, multi-stage diplomatic process rather than an imminent signing. That reading fits the news backdrop: after the 2026 Iran war and the June memorandum of understanding establishing a ceasefire framework, Iran's foreign minister has suggested room remains for negotiations while differences over the sequence of events stay unresolved. Technical talks on nuclear inspections and enrichment limits have continued intermittently through the year without a final agreement, consistent with traders pushing most probability mass toward 2028 rather than the next few months. Overall, the data shows a market that views a US-Iran nuclear deal as more likely than not within the 2026-2028 window, but still distant and uncertain in its near-term timing, with pricing concentrated almost entirely on Kalshi.