US retail jobs added this holiday season — September–December 2026
Markets
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| Outcome | Best | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Above 400,000 jobs Favorite | 81.0%Kalshi | $1.5K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Above 450,000 jobs | 51.0%Kalshi | $100 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Description from Kalshi. A cross-platform summary is generated once this event is matched across platforms.
This market measures the net increase in U.S. retail trade payroll employment from September–December 2026 using BLS’s not-seasonally-adjusted “All employees, retail trade” series (CEU4200000001). The expiration value is the first published December 2026 level, converted from thousands to individual jobs, minus the fixed September baseline of 15,378,400 jobs. The initial December estimate is used even if labeled preliminary. Later corrections, revisions, and benchmark updates to either month are ignored. No additional rounding applies. The measure includes seasonal and nonseasonal jobs and reflects net employment growth, not gross hires or announced hiring plans.
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