US trade deficit for 2031
Markets
Every market on this event, moneyline first. Select one to compare it across platforms in the side panel.
| Outcome | Best | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Above $1.0 trillion No liquidity | — | — | — | — | No liquidity67.0% | — | — | — | — |
Above $1.1 trillion No liquidity | — | — | — | — | No liquidity56.0% | — | — | — | — |
Above $1.2 trillion No liquidity | — | — | — | — | No liquidity46.0% | — | — | — | — |
Above $500 billion No liquidity | — | — | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Above $600 billion No liquidity | — | $2 | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Above $700 billion No liquidity | — | — | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Above $800 billion No liquidity | — | — | — | — | No liquidity98.0% | — | — | — | — |
Above $900 billion No liquidity | — | — | — | — | No liquidity86.0% | — | — | — | — |
Description from Kalshi. A cross-platform summary is generated once this event is matched across platforms.
The Underlying is the nominal goods and services balance on a balance-of-payments basis. It will not use the goods-only deficit, the advance goods report, the December monthly deficit, or inflation-adjusted trade data. Because the agencies generally report the balance as a negative number, the market will use the absolute size of the deficit. For example, an annual trade balance of −$800.1 billion constitutes a trade deficit of $800.1 billion. Resolution will use the first annual estimate published in the release covering December of 2031. Subsequent annual revisions will not be considered.
Discussion (0)
Log in to join the discussion.
No comments yet — start the discussion.