US trade deficit for 2032
Markets
Every market on this event, moneyline first. Select one to compare it across platforms in the side panel.
| Outcome | Best | Volume | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Above $1.0 trillion No liquidity | — | — | — | No liquidity77.0% | — | — | — | — |
Above $1.1 trillion No liquidity | — | — | — | No liquidity66.0% | — | — | — | — |
Above $1.2 trillion No liquidity | — | — | — | No liquidity55.0% | — | — | — | — |
Above $500 billion No liquidity | — | — | — | No liquidity98.0% | — | — | — | — |
Above $600 billion No liquidity | — | — | — | No liquidity98.0% | — | — | — | — |
Above $700 billion No liquidity | — | — | — | No liquidity98.0% | — | — | — | — |
Above $800 billion No liquidity | — | $3 | — | No liquidity95.0% | — | — | — | — |
Above $900 billion No liquidity | — | — | — | No liquidity87.0% | — | — | — | — |
Description from Kalshi. A cross-platform summary is generated once this event is matched across platforms.
The Underlying is the nominal goods and services balance on a balance-of-payments basis. It will not use the goods-only deficit, the advance goods report, the December monthly deficit, or inflation-adjusted trade data. Because the agencies generally report the balance as a negative number, the market will use the absolute size of the deficit. For example, an annual trade balance of −$800.1 billion constitutes a trade deficit of $800.1 billion. Resolution will use the first annual estimate published in the release covering December of 2032. Subsequent annual revisions will not be considered.
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