US Trade Deficit in 2026?
Markets
Every market on this event, moneyline first. Select one to compare it across platforms in the side panel.
| Outcome | Best | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
800–900B Favorite | 50.0%Polymarket | $2.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
700–800B | 28.0%Polymarket | $725 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
900B–1T | 20.0%Polymarket | $1.6K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
600–700B | 14.9%Polymarket | $551 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
500–600B | 7.6%Polymarket | $454 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
1T–1.1T | 6.9%Polymarket | $1.6K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
<500B | 3.6%Polymarket | $16.9K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
1.1T+ | 3.7%Polymarket | $1.2K | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Description from Polymarket. A cross-platform summary is generated once this event is matched across platforms.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027. Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen. Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
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Similar events we kept separate — a different date, bracket, or resolution window. Compare them across platforms.
| Event | Outcomes | Volume | Platforms |
|---|---|---|---|
| US trade deficit for 2026? | Above 170 billion 91.0% · Below 45 billion — · 85 billion to 94.9 billion — | $15.4K | Kalshi |