Van Impe vs Day

This market covers the ITF W100 Templeton, California Round of 32 women's tennis match between Amelie Van Impe and Kayla Day, originally scheduled for September 30, 2026. A "Van Impe" outcome resolves if she advances, and "Day" resolves if she does. Under each platform's rules, mid-match retirements resolve to the player who advances, while pre-match walkovers or cancellations resolve 50-50. Kalshi has attracted essentially all of the roughly $2.86 million in volume, with Polymarket and Polymarket US carrying only nominal activity. Van Impe is the clear favourite at a consensus 83.8%, with Day at 16.3%. However, the pricing across platforms differs sharply: Polymarket has Van Impe at 99.9%, Polymarket US at 96.0%, and Kalshi at just 76.0%. That produces a 16.5-point spread on the same outcome, with Kalshi giving Day a 25.0% chance versus 7.0% on Polymarket and 12.0% on Polymarket US. Polymarket also lists a range of secondary markets (game totals, set winners, and other props) all sitting near 50%, reflecting minimal trading rather than balanced views. The cross-platform takeaway: all books favour Van Impe decisively, but Kalshi — where nearly all liquidity sits — prices the match meaningfully closer than the thinly traded Polymarket venues.