van vs Pantoja

UFC 331's flyweight main event between champion Alexandre Pantoja and challenger Joshua Van is one of the more widely listed MMA fights across prediction markets, with roughly $2.4M in aggregate volume — the bulk of it sitting on Kalshi's headline winner market ($1.85M) and Polymarket's equivalent ($229K), alongside smaller Kalshi books on method, round, and round-of-finish, plus an Azuro listing. Van is the narrow favourite to win, priced at a 58.8% consensus. Individual platforms cluster tightly: Azuro 58.8%, Polymarket 58.5%, Kalshi 58.0%, and Polymarket US at 57.0%, a 2.3-point spread. Pantoja sits at a 45.5% consensus, with Azuro highest at 45.5% and Polymarket lowest at 41.5% — a 3.95-point gap, the widest on the headline outcome. On method, Kalshi has Decision/Draw/No Contest at 37.0%, KO/TKO/DQ at 44.0%, and Submission at 30.0%, with Pantoja by submission (24.0%) and Van by KO/TKO/DQ (34.0%) the most likely specific finishes. The fight ending before round 5 trades at 56.0% on Kalshi. The cross-platform takeaway: books broadly agree Van is a slight favourite around 58%, with Polymarket pricing Pantoja a few points cheaper than Azuro or Kalshi.