Venezuela leader end of 2026?

This market asks who will officially hold the position of Venezuela's head of state on December 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. It resolves to whoever is formally confirmed in that role — by the Venezuelan government or, if ambiguous, by the UN — at that specific moment. Delcy Rodríguez was sworn in as acting president of Venezuela on January 5, 2026, two days after Nicolás Maduro was captured by U.S. troops and taken to the United States to face criminal charges. She is the first woman in Venezuelan history to perform the duties of the presidency. The Trump administration subsequently formally notified the U.S. justice system of its recognition of Rodríguez as president, with the State Department clarifying she is now considered the sole head of state capable of acting on behalf of the Venezuelan government. The shift came alongside the restoration of diplomatic relations between the two nations on March 5, ending a freeze dating back to 2019. Markets on both Polymarket and Limitless reflect this political reality. Rodríguez leads as the consensus favourite at 55.5%, with Polymarket pricing her at 54.0% and Limitless at 55.2% — a negligible spread. Maduro sits in second at a consensus 43.3–43.4% across both platforms, a figure that likely captures residual uncertainty around his ongoing trial in New York: Maduro faces trial for alleged narcoterrorism and has attempted to claim sovereign immunity. All other candidates — including Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Edmundo González, and María Corina Machado — register below 0.5% apiece. The cross-platform picture is remarkably consistent: Polymarket and Limitless are within roughly 1.5 percentage points on both leading outcomes, suggesting broad agreement with no meaningful arbitrage opportunity. The near-even split between Rodríguez and Maduro reflects genuine legal and political uncertainty about whether Venezuela's acting leader will hold the position through year-end, or whether a dramatic reversal in Maduro's fortunes could reshape the landscape before December 31.