Vici Gaming vs Team Falcons

This is a Dota 2 Best-of-3 quarterfinal match at the Esports World Cup 2026 in Paris between Team Falcons and Vici Gaming. Markets ask which team wins the overall match, plus individual map winners across Kalshi and Polymarket. The event is live and the data snapshot — showing Vici Gaming at near-certainty on several outcomes — strongly suggests the match is already in progress or partially completed. The live score data shows the series is underway with Vici Gaming leading 1–0 after winning Map 1, which finished with a 38–32 kill score in favour of VG. That context makes the probability distribution coherent: Map 1 had 64.7% of users picking Vici Gaming, and Kalshi's Map 1 "Yes" (VG wins) market is now at 99.8%, reflecting a completed result. The overall match market on Polymarket prices Team Falcons at 64.0%–66.0% and Vici Gaming at 35.0%–36.0% — essentially the odds for the remaining maps — while Kalshi's full-match market sits closer to 84.0% for Vici Gaming, a notable 48-point discrepancy that likely reflects different timing or liquidity in the two books. Vici Gaming reached the playoffs as the last team in after upsetting European juggernauts 1w Team in a 2-1 reverse sweep in the Survival Stage, marking them as a live underdog story. Team Falcons are last year's EWC runners-up, lending weight to Polymarket's view that Falcons remain the series favourites despite trailing on maps. With $2.5 million in volume concentrated on Polymarket and negligible liquidity on Limitless, the cross-platform picture is dominated by Polymarket's pricing, making Kalshi's divergent full-match line the most notable spread to watch as the series concludes.