Wales vs Norway
Markets
Every market on this event, moneyline first. Select one to compare it across platforms in the side panel.
| Outcome | Best | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Wales Winner | — | $2.1M | — | No liquidity99.0% | |||||
Norway Eliminated | — | $6.7M | — | Eliminated | |||||
Draw Eliminated | — | $846.3K | — | Eliminated |
Dimmed prices were last confirmed too long ago for the state of this event (in play, before the game, or long-dated) and are left out of consensus, best price and spread.
AI-generated summary, may be inaccurate.
Wales host Norway in a UEFA Nations League fixture scheduled for October 1, 2026, and the match is listed across Polymarket, Kalshi, Novig, Azuro, Limitless and Polymarket US, with Polymarket's main moneyline market dominating volume at roughly $920k and Kalshi's equivalent close behind near $947k. Alongside the straight winner, the platforms offer a deep set of derivative markets: exact score, total goals, corners, spreads, halftime result, first team to score, and team totals. Norway is the clear favourite to win in regulation, pricing around 68.5% on consensus, versus 18.6% for the draw and just 12.5% for Wales. Across venues the moneyline is tightly aligned: Polymarket and Polymarket US have Norway at 69.0%, Kalshi and Novig at 69.0% and 70.5%, Limitless at 68.7%, and Azuro slightly higher at 70.9%. The implied spread lines echo this, with Norway −1.5 priced near 43.5% and Wales +2.5 around 78.5%. The most visible cross-platform gap sits on Azuro, which prices Norway, the draw and Wales all a few points richer than peers (spreads of roughly 2.4, 4.0 and 2.8 points respectively), while mainstream books agree closely that Norway is a solid but not overwhelming favourite.
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