West Indies vs New Zealand

This market covers a men's ODI between West Indies and New Zealand, listed on Kalshi as scheduled for July 13, 2026 and on Polymarket for July 19, 2026. Each side of the market resolves on the finalized match result, with ties, abandonments, or no-results generally resolving 50-50 under both platforms' rules. New Zealand is the overwhelming favourite at a consensus 99.0%, driven almost entirely by Kalshi, which prices the Kiwis at 99.0% and West Indies at just 1.0%. Kalshi also carries the volume here, with roughly $3.4M traded against about $10 on Polymarket. Polymarket, by contrast, has New Zealand at only 61.5% and West Indies at 38.5%, a much tighter book that likely reflects stale or thinly-traded quotes rather than a competing view of the match. The result is a striking 37.5-point cross-platform spread on both outcomes. Kalshi's pricing signals the match has effectively resolved or is on the verge of doing so in New Zealand's favour, while Polymarket's near-even line appears to be a function of negligible liquidity. The cross-platform takeaway: Kalshi's deep, near-certain price on New Zealand is the informative signal, with Polymarket's wider odds a byproduct of an essentially untraded book.