What kind of government will Israel form? — Through Oct 27, 2027 at latest
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| Outcome | Best | Volume | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Minority government | 29.0%Kalshi | $197 | — | — | — | — | — | |
Description from Kalshi. A cross-platform summary is generated once this event is matched across platforms.
Israel's next government is the first one the Knesset elected on Oct 27, 2026 approves in a vote of confidence. A faction counts if it is part of that government's coalition: it signed a coalition agreement to join the government that was submitted to the Knesset before the vote, or one of its members is a minister when the Knesset approves the government or is appointed a deputy minister within 30 days after the vote. Factions that only support the government from outside the coalition or abstain do not count, including under a written support agreement. Seats are each faction's size in the Knesset on the day of the vote; later changes do not count. A majority government holds at least 61 of the 120 seats, and a minority government holds 1 to 60 ("between" includes both 1 and 60). If that Knesset dissolves before approving a government, or none is approved before Oct 28, 2027, the number of seats is 0 and only No government resolves to Yes.
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