What will John Ternus say during his Apple Keynote? — John Ternus - Apple Surprise and Shine address
Markets
Every market on this event, moneyline first. Select one to compare it across platforms in the side panel.
| Outcome | Result | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Apple Intelligence | Lost | $3.3K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Ultra | Lost | $6.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Fold / Folding / Foldable | Lost | $12.2K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Siri | Lost | $5.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Aluminum | Lost | $3.5K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Ecosystem | Lost | $2.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Health / Fitness | Lost | $2.7K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Heart Rate Winner | Won | $1.4K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
AirPods Pro | Lost | $5.4K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Battery | Lost | $3.4K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Privacy | Lost | $6.3K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Anthropic / Claude | Lost | $342 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Chip | Lost | $27.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Hardware | Lost | $14.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
iOS 27 | Lost | $13.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Apple TV | Lost | $2.9K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Satellite | Lost | $1.8K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Dynamic Island | Lost | $4.5K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
AirTag | Lost | $3.5K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Afford / Affordable | Lost | $8.9K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Event does not qualify | Lost | $4.3K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Apple Watch SE | Lost | $4.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Tariff | Lost | $6.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Google / Gemini | Lost | $852 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
OpenAI / ChatGPT | Lost | $466 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Samsung | Lost | $293 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Description from Kalshi. A cross-platform summary is generated once this event is matched across platforms.
How this is resolved Video of the Apple Surprise and Shine address using the live broadcast or stream. If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Apple Surprise and Shine address will be used. Payout Criteria The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word. Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc). John Ternus speaking in an official capacity. For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion. Doesn't count for payout Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included. Presence alone during a livestream is not sufficient for the market to qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic). Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address. Payout for cancellations and delays If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No. If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.
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