What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 4, 2026? — Worldwide on Oct 4, 2026
Markets
Every market on this event, moneyline first. Select one to compare it across platforms in the side panel.
| Outcome | Best | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Magnitude of at least 5.2 Winner | — | $900 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Magnitude of at least 5.4 Winner | — | $2.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Magnitude of at least 5.6 | — | $1.8K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Magnitude of at least 5.8 | — | $642 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Magnitude of at least 6.0 | — | $479 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Magnitude of at least 6.2 | — | $221 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Magnitude of at least 6.4 | — | $367 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Magnitude of at least 6.6 | — | $645 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Magnitude of at least 6.8 | — | $1.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Magnitude of at least 7.0 | — | $3.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Dimmed prices were last confirmed too long ago for the state of this event (in play, before the game, or long-dated) and are left out of consensus, best price and spread.
Description from Kalshi. A cross-platform summary is generated once this event is matched across platforms.
The determining value is the USGS-reported magnitude displayed at Expiration, preferentially moment magnitude (Mw) and otherwise the primary magnitude type reported by USGS. If multiple earthquakes tie for the highest magnitude, all tied earthquakes count. If USGS ComCat is unavailable at Expiration, settlement may be delayed under the Contract contingencies.
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