What will the peak RONI value be during the 2026-27 El Niño season? — MJJ 2026 through MAM 2027
Markets
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| Outcome | Best | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1.5°C to 1.9°C | 2.0%Kalshi | $4.2K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
2.0°C to 2.4°C | 3.0%Kalshi | $13.8K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
2.5°C to 2.9°C | 26.0%Kalshi | $26.9K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
At least 3.0°C Favorite | 66.0%Kalshi | $37.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Description from Kalshi. A cross-platform summary is generated once this event is matched across platforms.
The peak RONI value is determined solely from values published in the NOAA CPC official RONI table that are designated as final (non-preliminary). For La Niña contracts, the peak RONI value refers to the single most negative (i.e., lowest) RONI value. The latest Expiration Date shall be one week after the Source Agency publishes the final RONI value for the last three-month period falling within the time period. However, if the peak RONI value necessary to determine the Market Outcome can be conclusively established prior to that date (e.g., the season has formally ended and all relevant values are final), expiration may be moved to an earlier date and time.
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