What will Trump say during his rally in New York? — Donald Trump - Midterm Rally in Syracuse, New York originally scheduled for October 9, 2026
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| Outcome | Best | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oil / Gas / Gasoline Favorite | 97.0%Kalshi | $3.9K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Fake News | 97.0%Kalshi | $3.6K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Transgender | 97.0%Kalshi | $21.3K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Dividend / Stimulus | 97.0%Kalshi | $4.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Hochul | 95.0%Kalshi | $4.6K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Healthcare | 94.0%Kalshi | $2.5K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Save America Act | 93.0%Kalshi | $3.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Sanctuary | 92.0%Kalshi | $5.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Afford / Affordable / Affordability | 88.0%Kalshi | $389 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Made in America / American Made | 88.0%Kalshi | $1.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Kamala | 83.0%Kalshi | $2.8K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
ICE | 82.0%Kalshi | $2.4K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Micron | 76.0%Kalshi | $2.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Zohran / Mamdani | 75.0%Kalshi | $10.9K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
AI / Artificial Intelligence | 73.0%Kalshi | $2.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Cheat / Cheater / Cheating | 68.0%Kalshi | $1.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
China / Chinese | 68.0%Kalshi | $1.2K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Sleepy Joe | 66.0%Kalshi | $3.3K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Barack Hussein Obama | 61.0%Kalshi | $2.7K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Israel / Israeli | 58.0%Kalshi | $7.5K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Hormuz | 58.0%Kalshi | $1.2K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Russia / Ukraine | 58.0%Kalshi | $725 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Fraud (3+ times) | 52.0%Kalshi | $2.7K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Iran (5+ times) | 50.0%Kalshi | $2.9K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Blockade | 47.0%Kalshi | $2.2K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Supreme Court | 47.0%Kalshi | $1.2K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Palestine / Palestinian | 40.0%Kalshi | $5.7K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Gulf of America | 36.0%Kalshi | $9.3K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Trump Account | 32.0%Kalshi | $17.5K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Deport / Deported / Deportation | 30.0%Kalshi | $8.2K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Data Center | 28.0%Kalshi | $3.7K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
America First | 18.0%Kalshi | $5.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Fentanyl | 12.0%Kalshi | $4.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Drill Baby Drill | 8.0%Kalshi | $4.4K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Ceasefire | 4.0%Kalshi | $19.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Peace in the Middle East | 4.0%Kalshi | $7.2K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
TrumpRX | 3.0%Kalshi | $9.6K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Crypto / Bitcoin | 2.0%Kalshi | $48.4K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Description from Kalshi. A cross-platform summary is generated once this event is matched across platforms.
How this is resolved Video of the Midterm Rally in Syracuse, New York originally scheduled for October 9, 2026 using the live broadcast or stream. If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Midterm Rally in Syracuse, New York originally scheduled for October 9, 2026 will be used. Payout Criteria The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word. Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc). Donald Trump speaking in an official capacity. For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion. Doesn't count for payout Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included. Presence alone during a livestream is not sufficient for the market to qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic). Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address. Payout for cancellations and delays If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No. If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.
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