What will Trump say during his Rose Garden Event? — Donald Trump - Rose Garden Event
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| Outcome | Best | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Scholarship Winner | 99.0%Kalshi | $8.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Big Beautiful Bill | 99.0%Kalshi | $16.3K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Democrat | 99.0%Kalshi | $5.5K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Teacher / Teachers | 99.0%Kalshi | $11.9K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Tax Credit / Tax Cut | 99.0%Kalshi | $5.8K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Radical Left | 99.0%Kalshi | $7.7K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
China / Chinese | 99.0%Kalshi | $11.3K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Melania | 99.0%Kalshi | $12.2K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
AI / Artificial Intelligence | 99.0%Kalshi | $10.4K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Transgender | 99.0%Kalshi | $19.9K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Tariff | 1.0%Kalshi | $8.5K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Private School | 1.0%Kalshi | $17.6K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Biden | 1.0%Kalshi | $36.7K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Tuition | 1.0%Kalshi | $18.8K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Election | 1.0%Kalshi | $7.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Afford / Affordable / Affordability | 1.0%Kalshi | $22.8K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Oil / Gas / Gasoline | 1.0%Kalshi | $9.5K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Fake News | 1.0%Kalshi | $22.7K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Barack Hussein Obama | 1.0%Kalshi | $5.4K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
America First | 1.0%Kalshi | $18.5K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Fraud | 1.0%Kalshi | $11.7K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Iran (3+ times) | 1.0%Kalshi | $26.7K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Hormuz | 1.0%Kalshi | $7.5K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
MAGA / Make America Great Again | 1.0%Kalshi | $8.3K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Ceasefire | 1.0%Kalshi | $11.3K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Crypto / Bitcoin | 1.0%Kalshi | $25.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Event does not qualify | 1.0%Kalshi | $8.3K | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Description from Kalshi. A cross-platform summary is generated once this event is matched across platforms.
How this is resolved Video of the Rose Garden Event using the live broadcast or stream. If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Rose Garden Event will be used. Payout Criteria The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word. Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc). Donald Trump speaking in an official capacity. For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion. Doesn't count for payout Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included. Presence alone during a livestream is not sufficient for the market to qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic). Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address. Payout for cancellations and delays If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No. If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.
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