What will Trump say during the United Nations General Assembly? — Donald Trump - the United Nations General Assembly
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| Outcome | Result | Volume | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nuclear | Lost | $62.4K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Iran / Iranian | Lost | $21.8K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Communist / Communism | Lost | $54.7K | — | — | — | — | — | |
AI / Artificial Intelligence | Lost | $24.7K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Israel / Israeli | Lost | $11.3K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Lost | $17.8K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Venezuela | Lost | $67.7K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Immigrant / Immigration | Lost | $9.9K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Tariff | Lost | $4.7K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Terrorist / Terrorism | Lost | $83.2K | — | — | — | — | — | |
First Term | Lost | $11.0K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Hottest | Lost | $16.1K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Russia / Russian | Lost | $7.4K | — | — | — | — | — | |
China / Chinese | Lost | $8.2K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Trump | Lost | $10.9K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Stock Market | Lost | $8.4K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Gaza / Palestine | Lost | $21.3K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Ukraine (3+ times) Winner | Won | $22.6K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Ceasefire | Lost | $50.4K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Board of Peace | Lost | $6.4K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Hormuz | Lost | $6.6K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Saudi | Lost | $2.4K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Canada / Canadian | Lost | $20.3K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Windmill | Lost | $32.0K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Fentanyl | Lost | $35.1K | — | — | — | — | — | |
America First | Lost | $22.4K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Peace in the Middle East | Lost | $32.1K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Democrat | Lost | $180.6K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Nobel | Lost | $14.8K | — | — | — | — | — | |
MAGA / Make America Great Again | Lost | $31.3K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Crypto / Bitcoin | Lost | $166.7K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Event does not qualify | Lost | $72.5K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Data Center | Lost | $12.8K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Ebola | Lost | $9.5K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Putin | Lost | $12.0K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Rare Earth / Mineral | Lost | $7.7K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Sleepy Joe | Lost | $9.5K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Biden | Lost | $21.1K | — | — | — | — | — |
Description from Kalshi. A cross-platform summary is generated once this event is matched across platforms.
Important information: To be clear, this event will resolve based on Donald Trump’s official address during the General Debate of the 81st United Nations General Assembly, originally scheduled for September 22, 2026. Remarks at press conferences, interviews, side events, bilateral meetings, or separate statements will not count. Markets may close and resolve after the address concludes and the outcomes are verified. How this is resolved Video of the the United Nations General Assembly using the live broadcast or stream. If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the the United Nations General Assembly will be used. Payout Criteria The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word. Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc). Donald Trump speaking in an official capacity. For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion. Doesn't count for payout Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included. Presence alone during a livestream is not sufficient for the market to qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic). Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address. Payout for cancellations and delays If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No. If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.
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