When will a member of Trump's Cabinet leave? — In 2029
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| Outcome | Best | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Before Jan 2027 Favorite | 64.0%Kalshi | $6.2K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Before Dec 2026 | 48.0%Kalshi | $2.5K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Before Nov 2026 | 28.0%Kalshi | $1.9K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
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Any action related to Tulsi Gabbard will not qualify. The President announcing that a member of the Cabinet will leave the Cabinet also qualifies. For purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 government agencies in the Cabinet as of Issuance, as well the Administrator of the EPA, the President’s Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP. Acting roles are not included. Leaving office as a result of death is not encompassed by the Payout Criterion.
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