When will any company achieve AGI? — Corporate announcement
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| Outcome | Best | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Before Jan 1, 2031 Favorite | 83.0%Kalshi | $9.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Before Jan 1, 2030 | 82.0%Kalshi | $4.4K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Before Jan 1, 2029 | 79.0%Kalshi | $4.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Before Oct 1, 2028 | 76.0%Kalshi | $4.5K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Before Jul 1, 2028 | 76.0%Kalshi | $4.8K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Before Apr 1, 2028 | 71.0%Kalshi | $6.2K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Before Jan 1, 2028 | 61.0%Kalshi | $15.6K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Before Oct 1, 2027 | 43.0%Kalshi | $30.2K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Before Jul 1, 2027 | 31.0%Kalshi | $31.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Before Apr 1, 2027 | 26.0%Kalshi | $20.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Before Jan 1, 2027 | 11.0%Kalshi | $32.8K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Description from Kalshi. A cross-platform summary is generated once this event is matched across platforms.
To qualify, the announcement must explicitly state that the company has achieved, attained, reached, or developed Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), or that it has achieved, attained, reached, or developed “AGI.” Statements that describe “AGI-like,” “AGI-level,” “near-AGI,” or “toward AGI” systems without explicitly stating that the company has achieved/attained/reached/developed AGI do not qualify. For purposes of this market, a “company” includes any publicly traded company or any privately held company whose existence and corporate identity is verifiable and whose financing/valuation or corporate profile is covered by at least two of the listed major business news sources.
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