When will Texas enact a state income tax? — Before 2030
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| Outcome | Best | Volume | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Before 2030 | 22.0%Kalshi | $6.1K | — | — | — | — | — | |
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Enactment requires completion of all constitutional and legal requirements for the legislation to become binding law. A state personal income tax means a tax imposed by the State of Texas on the income of individuals, including a tax that applies only above a specified income threshold. Taxes on businesses, such as the Texas franchise tax, and local taxes do NOT count. Standard legislation requiring executive approval: final passage by all required legislative bodies, executive signature OR becoming law despite executive inaction OR successful veto override, and satisfaction of any required waiting periods Constitutional amendments: passage with required supermajorities and approval by Texas voters A constitutional amendment that only removes the Texas Constitution's ban on a personal income tax, without itself imposing the tax, does NOT count. A tax law that depends on voters approving a constitutional amendment counts only once that amendment is approved. The following do NOT constitute enactment: Legislative passage without completed executive action Passage by only some required bodies Provisional passage Non-binding resolutions Enactment occurs when all requirements are completed, regardless of pending judicial challenges.
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