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When will the next US recession start?
Starts:Mar 19, 2025, 2:00 PMEnds:Dec 31, 2026, 3:00 PM
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Total volume
$520.2K
Largest spread
—
Outcomes
6
Platforms
1
Markets
1
Markets
Every market on this event, moneyline first. Select one to compare it across platforms in the side panel.
| Outcome | Best | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Q1 2026 | 8.8%Kalshi | $85.7K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Q4 2025 | 6.6%Kalshi | $97.4K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Q2 2025 | 3.4%Kalshi | $131.4K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Q4 2024 | 3.0%Kalshi | $46.2K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Q3 2025 | 2.8%Kalshi | $83.4K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Q1 2026
8.8%Best · Kalshi$85.7K
Q4 2025
6.6%Best · Kalshi$97.4K
Q2 2025
3.4%Best · Kalshi$131.4K
Q4 2024
3.0%Best · Kalshi$46.2K
Q3 2025
2.8%Best · Kalshi$83.4K
Description from Kalshi. A cross-platform summary is generated once this event is matched across platforms.
Clarification 4/15/25 3:00 AM ET: The determination for this market will be based on which quarter NBER highlights (independent of the month they highlight). For example, the most recent recession written as "February 2020 (2019Q4)" would resolve YES for the market called "Q4 2019" (if this was listed).
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