When will the US and China reach a tariff agreement? — the United States and China reach a new mutual tariff agreement, publicly announced or confirmed by both governments
Markets
Every market on this event, moneyline first. Select one to compare it across platforms in the side panel.
| Outcome | Result | Volume | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Before Jan 1, 2027 | Lost | $3.8K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Before Nov 1, 2026 | Lost | $3.0K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Before Oct 1, 2026 Winner | Won | $6.5K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Before Dec 1, 2026 | Lost | $1.0K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Before Sep 1, 2026 | Lost | $1.2K | — | — | — | — | — |
Description from Kalshi. A cross-platform summary is generated once this event is matched across platforms.
An extension, modification, or replacement of the tariff truce in effect at Issuance qualifies as a new mutual tariff agreement. A qualifying agreement must address tariff rates or tariff suspensions; agreements limited to other trade matters do not count. Unilateral tariff actions do not count, even if the other side declines to respond. Reports that negotiations are ongoing, near completion, or agreed in principle by only one side do not count. An agreement qualifies once reached and confirmed by both governments, regardless of when it takes effect. Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.
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