When will Trump raise tariffs on Canada? — US tariffs on Canada
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| Outcome | Best | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Before Jan 1, 2027 Favorite | 79.0%Kalshi | $205 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Before Dec 1, 2026 | 64.0%Kalshi | $300 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Before Nov 1, 2026 | 41.0%Kalshi | $1.4K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Description from Kalshi. A cross-platform summary is generated once this event is matched across platforms.
Any qualifying presidential action must be taken personally during the specified time period and explicitly address the topic in its operative provisions, title, or official White House summary. Actions must have legal or policy effect - ceremonial proclamations without policy impact do not qualify unless specifically included. Actions that only incidentally mention the topic, statements without formal action, actions by cabinet members, legislative proposals without executive action, and signing statements do not qualify. The action must be publicly announced or documented by a Source Agency before expiration. A specified future effective date qualifies. An agency-only notice, a threat or remark without formal presidential action, or the scheduled activation or expiry of a previously ordered measure does NOT count. Publication or documentation by a Source Agency of the qualifying action personally signed, issued, or promulgated by Trump constitutes its official announcement by Trump; no separate speech or social-media statement is required.
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