Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026? — On Dec 31, 2026
Markets
Every market on this event, moneyline first. Select one to compare it across platforms in the side panel.
| Outcome | Best | Volume | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OpenAI Favorite | 90.0%Kalshi | $1.1K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Xiaomi | 62.0%Kalshi | $853 | — | — | — | — | — | |
Moonshot AI | 35.0%Kalshi | $677 | — | — | — | — | — | |
Alibaba | 21.0%Kalshi | $1.4K | — | — | — | — | — | |
DeepSeek | 19.0%Kalshi | $240 | — | — | — | — | — | |
InclusionAI | 15.0%Kalshi | $300 | — | — | — | — | — | |
IBM | 4.0%Kalshi | $6.1K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Description from Kalshi. A cross-platform summary is generated once this event is matched across platforms.
Resolves at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2026, using the chart on artificialanalysis.ai with the Pareto line shown. A model counts for the creator Artificial Analysis lists for it. A model is on the frontier if the chart's Pareto line passes through it: no other plotted model has an Intelligence Index at least as high and a Cost per Task at least as low, both unrounded, with one of the two strictly better; models with identical values are both on it. A model without a positive Cost per Task is not plotted and cannot be on the frontier.
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