Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026? — On Dec 31, 2026

This market asks which AI company will hold the top-ranked coding model at the end of 2026, resolving on December 31, 2026. Each outcome corresponds to a specific company being judged best; the field spans US labs like Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, Meta, xAI and Amazon alongside Chinese entrants including Baidu, Alibaba, DeepSeek, ByteDance, Moonshot and Z.ai. The event is listed on Kalshi, which carries essentially all of the roughly $1.01M in volume, and on Polymarket US, which currently shows no volume or liquidity. Anthropic is the clear favourite at a 75.5% consensus, well ahead of OpenAI at 27.0%, Amazon at 11.5% and xAI at 11.0%. No other company clears 5%. That gap signals traders view Anthropic's coding lead as the dominant scenario, with OpenAI as the main challenger and everyone else treated as a long tail. Cross-platform pricing diverges sharply on the top two names. Anthropic trades at 76.0% on Polymarket US versus 59.0% on Kalshi, a 17-point spread, while OpenAI is 28.0% on Kalshi but just 6.0% on Polymarket US, a 22-point gap. xAI also splits, at 12.0% on Kalshi and 4.0% on Polymarket US. The takeaway: both venues agree Anthropic leads, but Kalshi prices a materially more competitive race than Polymarket US.