Live
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? — Before Jan 1, 2030
Starts:Oct 4, 2026, 12:00 AMEnds:Jan 1, 2030, 4:58 AM
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Total volume
$5
Largest spread
—
Outcomes
33
Platforms
1
Markets
1
Markets
Every market on this event, moneyline first. Select one to compare it across platforms in the side panel.
| Outcome | Best | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OpenAI No liquidity | — | — | — | — | No liquidity89.0% | — | — | — | — |
Google No liquidity | — | — | — | — | No liquidity82.0% | — | — | — | — |
Meta No liquidity | — | — | — | — | No liquidity65.0% | — | — | — | — |
xAI No liquidity | — | — | — | — | No liquidity44.0% | — | — | — | — |
Alibaba No liquidity | — | — | — | — | No liquidity34.0% | — | — | — | — |
DeepSeek No liquidity | — | — | — | — | No liquidity49.0% | — | — | — | — |
Moonshot No liquidity | — | — | — | — | No liquidity49.0% | — | — | — | — |
Z AI No liquidity | — | $5 | — | — | No liquidity49.0% | — | — | — | — |
Xiaomi No liquidity | — | — | — | — | No liquidity64.0% | — | — | — | — |
StepFun No liquidity | — | — | — | — | No liquidity9.0% | — | — | — | — |
MiniMax No liquidity | — | — | — | — | No liquidity49.0% | — | — | — | — |
Mistral No liquidity | — | — | — | — | No liquidity12.0% | — | — | — | — |
NVIDIA No liquidity | — | — | — | — | No liquidity9.0% | — | — | — | — |
Amazon No liquidity | — | — | — | — | No liquidity19.0% | — | — | — | — |
Baidu No liquidity | — | — | — | — | No liquidity64.0% | — | — | — | — |
ByteDance No liquidity | — | — | — | — | No liquidity29.0% | — | — | — | — |
Thinking Machines No liquidity | — | — | — | — | No liquidity9.0% | — | — | — | — |
China Mobile No liquidity | — | — | — | — | No liquidity9.0% | — | — | — | — |
Institute of Foundation Models No liquidity | — | — | — | — | No liquidity9.0% | — | — | — | — |
Upstage No liquidity | — | — | — | — | No liquidity9.0% | — | — | — | — |
OpenAINo liquidity
KalshiNo liquidity89.0%
GoogleNo liquidity
KalshiNo liquidity82.0%
MetaNo liquidity
KalshiNo liquidity65.0%
xAINo liquidity
KalshiNo liquidity44.0%
AlibabaNo liquidity
KalshiNo liquidity34.0%
DeepSeekNo liquidity
KalshiNo liquidity49.0%
MoonshotNo liquidity
KalshiNo liquidity49.0%
Z AINo liquidity
KalshiNo liquidity49.0%
XiaomiNo liquidity
KalshiNo liquidity64.0%
StepFunNo liquidity
KalshiNo liquidity9.0%
MiniMaxNo liquidity
KalshiNo liquidity49.0%
MistralNo liquidity
KalshiNo liquidity12.0%
NVIDIANo liquidity
KalshiNo liquidity9.0%
AmazonNo liquidity
KalshiNo liquidity19.0%
BaiduNo liquidity
KalshiNo liquidity64.0%
ByteDanceNo liquidity
KalshiNo liquidity29.0%
Thinking MachinesNo liquidity
KalshiNo liquidity9.0%
China MobileNo liquidity
KalshiNo liquidity9.0%
Institute of Foundation ModelsNo liquidity
KalshiNo liquidity9.0%
UpstageNo liquidity
KalshiNo liquidity9.0%
Description from Kalshi. A cross-platform summary is generated once this event is matched across platforms.
Leading at any point after listing and before the deadline counts; multiple companies can resolve Yes. Artificial Analysis is used first, then Epoch AI and LiveBench under the fallback and tiebreaking rules. Preliminary or provisional scores do not count.
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