Which company has the best AI model end of October?

This market asks which company will own the top-ranked model on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard when checked on October 31, 2026, with style control off and AutoEval models excluded. Each outcome corresponds to the parent company of the #1 ranked model at that moment; ties are broken first by Arena score, then alphabetically. The market is listed on both Polymarket, where it has drawn roughly $1.13M in volume, and Polymarket US, which currently shows no volume. Google is the clear favourite at a 60.2% consensus, trailed by Anthropic at 23.0% and DeepSeek at 9.5%. OpenAI sits far back at 2.5%, with xAI, Meta, Microsoft and a long tail of Chinese labs (Alibaba, Baidu, ByteDance, Z.ai, Moonshot, Tencent and others) priced at 1.5% or less. The gap between Google and Anthropic — roughly 37 points at consensus — signals that traders view the race as largely a two-horse contest, with DeepSeek as the main outside contender. The cross-platform spreads are notable: Polymarket prices Google at 72.1% versus just 49.0% on Polymarket US, a 23.4-point gap, and similar directional disagreement appears on Anthropic (27.5% vs 19.0%) and DeepSeek (0.2% vs 10.0%). The takeaway: both venues agree Google leads, but Polymarket is markedly more confident in that lead than Polymarket US.