Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade? — Dec 31, 2029 at 10:00 AM ET
Markets
Every market on this event, moneyline first. Select one to compare it across platforms in the side panel.
| Outcome | Best | Volume | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
United States Favorite | 71.0%Kalshi | $320 | — | — | — | — | — | |
China | 34.0%Kalshi | $424 | — | — | — | — | — | |
France | 6.0%Kalshi | $398 | — | — | — | — | — | |
United Arab Emirates | 5.0%Kalshi | $400 | — | — | — | — | — | |
South Korea | 4.0%Kalshi | $400 | — | — | — | — | — |
Description from Kalshi. A cross-platform summary is generated once this event is matched across platforms.
The Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index is used first, followed by Epoch AI's General ECI and LiveBench Overall under the fallback rules. The default leaderboard is used, excluding preliminary or provisional scores. Only the ranking at the stated time counts; leading earlier does not. Ties follow the contract's tiebreakers. A model counts for the country where its credited organization is headquartered or, for a division, subsidiary or brand, where its ultimate parent is headquartered (e.g., Google DeepMind counts for the United States). If that country is not listed, every market resolves No.
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