Which party will win the U.S. House? — In 2026

This market asks which party will control the U.S. House of Representatives following the November 2026 midterm elections. On Polymarket, resolution follows the party holding a majority of voting members, with a fallback to the Speaker's affiliation if the outcome is ambiguous. Kalshi resolves based on the party identification of the Speaker as of February 1, 2027. A "Democratic Party" outcome means Democrats win control; "Republican Party" means the GOP retains or wins the chamber. The Democratic Party is the clear favourite across all four venues, with a consensus implied probability of 84.0%. Polymarket prices Democrats at 84.0%, Limitless at 83.5%, and Kalshi at 82.0%, giving a modest 2.0-point spread on the favourite. Republicans sit at a consensus 19.0%, with Kalshi highest at 19.0% and both Polymarket and Limitless quoting 16.0%, a 3.0-point spread. Kalshi carries by far the deepest liquidity at roughly $10.7M, while Polymarket shows the largest cumulative volume among the derivative listings. The favourite skew of roughly 65 points signals strong market conviction that Democrats will flip or hold the chamber. Cross-platform pricing is tightly aligned, with Kalshi the cheapest entry on Democrats and Polymarket and Limitless the cheapest on Republicans.