Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?

The market asks which political party's candidate will win the 2028 US Presidential Election, scheduled for November 7, 2028. A "Democratic" resolution means the Democratic nominee is elected president; "Republican" means the Republican nominee wins. On Polymarket, resolution relies on the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all calling the race for the same party, defaulting to whoever is inaugurated on January 20, 2029 if consensus isn't reached. The event is listed on Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless, and Polymarket US, with Polymarket carrying the bulk of the roughly $2.6M in total volume. Democrats are the current favourite at a 57.5% consensus, versus 41.5% for Republicans — a spread of about 16 points. Pricing is remarkably tight across venues: Democratic sits at 57.5% on both Polymarket and Limitless and 58.0% on Kalshi, a spread of just 0.5 points. Republican pricing ranges from 40.5% on Limitless to 42.0% on Kalshi, a 1.5-point spread, with Polymarket in between at 41.0%. The separate "Democratic Party" and "Republican Party" lines on Polymarket US show 56.0% and 40.0% respectively. The cross-platform takeaway: all four venues broadly agree the Democrats hold a mid-teen-point edge over Republicans for 2028, with negligible arbitrage between them.