Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026? — Before Jan 1, 2027
Markets
Every market on this event, moneyline first. Select one to compare it across platforms in the side panel.
| Outcome | Best | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
U.S.–Mexico interim agreement Favorite | 41.0%Kalshi | $568 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Trilateral revised deal | 27.0%Kalshi | $664 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
U.S. withdrawal notice | 20.0%Kalshi | $2.4K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Formal USMCA amendment | 20.0%Kalshi | $1.4K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Formal 16-year extension | 19.0%Kalshi | $5.2K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Mexican withdrawal notice | 14.0%Kalshi | $749 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Canadian withdrawal notice | 12.0%Kalshi | $1.7K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Description from Kalshi. A cross-platform summary is generated once this event is matched across platforms.
This event is not mutually exclusive and multiple markets may resolve to Yes. Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.
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