Who will be arrested before 2027? — Before Jan 2027

This market asks whether a range of prominent political figures will be formally arrested or detained before January 1, 2027, with resolution criteria on both Kalshi and Polymarket broadly covering any qualifying form of custody — including voluntary surrender pursuant to an indictment. The overwhelming consensus across both platforms is that "No" dominates for most individuals listed, with implied probabilities of non-arrest sitting between roughly 67.0% and 98.3% depending on the person. The top "Yes" candidate is Mahmoud Khalil at 33.0% on Polymarket and 26.0% on Kalshi — a notable 7.0-point cross-platform spread. Khalil, a legal permanent resident born in Syria, was first arrested by ICE on March 8, 2025. His legal team is still fighting deportation proceedings, and he cannot be deported while a federal habeas corpus case proceeds. The elevated odds likely reflect the ongoing threat of re-detention: a 2-1 appeals court ruling in January 2026 overturned a lower court order that had released him on bail, though the ruling had not yet taken effect. Former CIA Director John Brennan is the second most likely candidate at 31.0% (Kalshi) and 28.5% (Polymarket). Prosecutors have been investigating Brennan's congressional testimony, issuing subpoenas, though some career prosecutors view the potential case as relatively weak. As recently as March 2026, House Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan described the DOJ probe into Brennan as "heating up." Former DNI James Clapper trails at 23.0%/17.0%, with a 6.0-point spread between Kalshi and Polymarket, reflecting similar uncertainty about whether political pressure translates into formal charges. Most other figures — including Anthony Fauci, Letitia James, and James Comey — sit well below 20%, signalling limited market conviction in near-term action. Across both platforms, the consistent takeaway is that non-arrest remains the heavy favourite for virtually every individual listed, with Khalil and Brennan the only names carrying meaningful "Yes" probability — and even they face substantial cross-platform disagreement on the precise odds.