Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? — Before Nov 7, 2028
Markets
Every market on this event, moneyline first. Select one to compare it across platforms in the side panel.
| Outcome | Best | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Andy Beshear Favorite | 30.0%Kalshi | $12.2K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Pete Buttigieg | 25.0%Kalshi | $14.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Gavin Newsom | 15.0%Kalshi | $18.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Jon Ossoff | 11.0%Kalshi | $4.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Josh Shapiro | 8.7%Kalshi | $8.5K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Wes Moore | 7.2%Kalshi | $4.6K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 2.0%Kalshi | $4.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
J.B. Pritzker | 2.0%Kalshi | $6.3K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Kamala Harris | 2.0%Kalshi | $15.5K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Gretchen Whitmer | 1.9%Kalshi | $2.7K | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Description from Kalshi. A cross-platform summary is generated once this event is matched across platforms.
A declaration of candidacy requires both filing the appropriate candidacy form (Form 2 with FEC for federal elections or equivalent state/local form) AND a clear, unambiguous public statement explicitly declaring intention to seek the office. The declaration must be made directly by the person or their officially authorized representatives, explicitly reference the specific office, be publicly accessible through Source Agencies, and occur after market issuance. Formation of exploratory committees, third-party statements, media speculation, "considering" statements, private communications, or fundraising without explicit declaration do not qualify. The person must be legally eligible to hold the office under applicable constitutional and statutory requirements.
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