Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Markets
Every market on this event, moneyline first. Select one to compare it across platforms in the side panel.
| Outcome | Best | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gadi Eizenkot Favorite | 52.8%Limitless | $2.2M | — | |||||
Other | 50.0%Limitless | $14 | — | — | — | — | — | |
Benjamin Netanyahu | 27.0%Kalshi | $4.4M | — | |||||
Naftali Bennett Widest spread 5.0% | 6.0%Polymarket US | $3.2M | — | |||||
Avigdor Lieberman | 4.0%Kalshi | $2.7M | — | — | ||||
Yair Lapid | 0.4%Limitless | $1.6M | — | — | ||||
Benny Gantz | 0.4%Polymarket | $2.2M | — | — | — | |||
Itamar Ben Gvir | 0.5%Polymarket | $1.6M | — | — | — | |||
Gideon Sa’ar | 0.1%Polymarket | $2.3M | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | ||
Ayelet Shaked | 0.5%Polymarket | $1.9M | — | — | — | |||
Yoaz Hendel | 0.5%Polymarket | $1.6M | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | ||
Ofer Winter | 1.2%Polymarket | $282.2K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Yuli Edelstein | 1.0%Kalshi | $169 | — | — | — | — | — | |
AI-generated summary, may be inaccurate.
This market asks who will be formally sworn in as Israel's next Prime Minister following the country's next parliamentary election, currently scheduled for October 27, 2026. Polymarket, which hosts the deepest liquidity at roughly $2.65m and has attracted over $36.6m in volume, resolves only to an individual actually sworn into the role — interim or caretaker premiers do not count. Kalshi, Limitless, Polymarket US and Gemini list parallel versions of the contract, though volume outside Polymarket is comparatively thin. Former IDF chief of staff Gadi Eizenkot is the clear favourite, with a cross-platform consensus of 57.2%. He is priced at 57.5% on Polymarket, 57.8% on Limitless, 59.0% on Gemini and 61.0% on Kalshi, with Polymarket US the low mark at 55.0%. Incumbent Benjamin Netanyahu sits second at a 27.5% consensus, followed by Naftali Bennett around 6.5% and Avigdor Lieberman near 4.5%. No other candidate clears 3%. The most striking dislocation is on Netanyahu: Polymarket US prices him at 42.0%, well above the 27.0–29.0% range seen on Kalshi, Polymarket, Limitless and Gemini. Across venues, Eizenkot is treated as the roughly 2-to-1 favourite over Netanyahu.
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