Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

This market asks who will hold the Israeli premiership after the country's October 2026 parliamentary election, with resolution tied to formal swearing-in following coalition negotiations. Each outcome represents a possible individual, while "No one" captures the scenario in which no government forms before the market's late-2027 deadline, reflecting the real possibility of prolonged coalition deadlock. Currently "No one" is the consensus favourite at 46.5%, priced almost identically across platforms (Kalshi 46.5%), underscoring how unresolved the post-election picture remains. Gadi Eisenkot, the Yashar party leader, sits close behind at 46.0% consensus, though pricing varies sharply by venue — Limitless and Polymarket put him near 56–57%, while Gemini and Kalshi are closer to 46%, a cross-platform spread of nearly 11 points. This gap likely reflects timing differences in updating after the vote. Netanyahu trails at a 19.8% consensus but with an even wider 20.7-point spread, ranging from just 9.5% on Kalshi to over 30% on Polymarket. Coverage of the October 27 election showed neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor his main rival Gadi Eisenkot within reach of the 61 seats needed for a governing majority, with exit polls indicating a near-tie between the two blocs, which explains why markets remain split between "No one," reflecting coalition gridlock, and Eisenkot, reflecting his bloc's narrow post-election edge. Taken together, the data shows a genuinely contested, still-unsettled race where platforms broadly agree no clear winner has emerged, but disagree meaningfully on how likely Eisenkot is to ultimately form a government.