Who will be UFC Flyweight champion at the end of 2026?
Markets
Every market on this event, moneyline first. Select one to compare it across platforms in the side panel.
| Outcome | Best | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Joshua Van FavoriteWidest spread 14.2% | 85.0%Polymarket US | $16.4K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Manel Kape | 2.7%Polymarket | $7.4K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Brandon Royval | 0.1%Polymarket | $1.8K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Muhammad Mokaev | 2.0%Polymarket US | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Alexandre Pantoja | 0.2%Polymarket | $13.8K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
AI-generated summary, may be inaccurate.
This market asks who will hold the official UFC Flyweight championship on December 31, 2026, resolving via UFC's listed division champions. Interim titleholders do not count, and a vacant belt at check time resolves to "Other." Two platforms carry the market: Polymarket, which holds essentially all of the roughly $1.18M in volume, and Polymarket US, which is currently dormant on volume but still shows quoted prices. Alexandre Pantoja is the consensus favourite at 69.0%, though the two venues disagree sharply on how commanding his lead is: Polymarket US prices him at 89.0%, while Polymarket has him at just 50.5%. Joshua Van is the clear second choice, quoted at 68.0% on Polymarket US and 48.0% on Polymarket — a similarly wide gap. Beyond the top two, the field thins quickly, with Brandon Royval, Manel Kape, Brandon Moreno, Amir Albazi, Muhammad Mokaev, and Kai Kara-France all clustered in the 3–4% consensus range, and names like Tatsuro Taira, Kyoji Horiguchi, and Steve Erceg trailing below 1% on Polymarket. The notable pattern is the roughly 20–39 point spread between Polymarket US and Polymarket on both Pantoja and Van, suggesting materially different pricing of the champion-versus-challenger dynamic across the two venues.
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